FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Orlando City SC 1–0 San Diego FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Orlando City SC at 42%, draw at 23%, San Diego FC at 35%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Orlando City SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
FC win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.84 – 1.69
Total 3.53
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 87%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 87% because Orlando's 1.84 xG and San Diego's 1.69 xG combine for a 3.53-goal forecast, with Luis Muriel's striker role accounting for nearly a quarter of the home team's shot quality."