FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Philadelphia Union 2–0 CF MontréalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 60%, draw at 22%, CF Montréal at 18%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Philadelphia Union.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Union win
60%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Montréal win
18%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.09 – 1.09
Total 3.18
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 83%, backed by Philadelphia Union's dominant 2.09 xG advantage and a near-99 shot quality gap that striker Tai Baribo (26% of team chances) is positioned to exploit."