What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025 and 2026 seasons in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win New York City FC vs Red Bull New York?
Bawler's model rates this match: New York City FC are favoured (54% win probability vs 23% for Red Bull New York, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs Red Bull New York?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is New York City FC 1-1 Red Bull New York (9.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.33.
How does Bawler predict New York City FC vs Red Bull New York?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives New York City FC 54%, the draw 23% and Red Bull New York 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in New York City FC vs Red Bull New York?
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.05 and away expected goals 1.29.
Over or under 2.5 goals in New York City FC vs Red Bull New York?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.33. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).