What we said the chances were
What we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Each bar is split by each side's share of the total.
First half — what we expected
First half — what we expected
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
League position
Common questions
Who will win Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Bawler's model rates this match: St. Louis CITY SC are favoured (42% win probability vs 34% for Red Bull New York, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Red Bull New York 1-1 St. Louis CITY SC (10.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Red Bull New York 34%, the draw 24% and St. Louis CITY SC 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 67% chance. That is based on Red Bull New York expecting 1.61 goals and St. Louis CITY SC 1.79.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 66%.