What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025 and 2026 seasons in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Bawler's model rates this match: St. Louis CITY SC are favoured (39% win probability vs 37% for Red Bull New York, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Red Bull New York 1-1 St. Louis CITY SC (10.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.37.
How does Bawler predict Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Red Bull New York 37%, the draw 24% and St. Louis CITY SC 39%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?
BTTS: Yes (66% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.66 and away expected goals 1.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Red Bull New York vs St. Louis CITY SC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.37. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).