FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 05 September 2026
New York City FC 0–0 Nashville SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had New York City FC at 40%, draw at 27%, Nashville SC at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was New York City FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
40%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
SC win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 1.33
Total 2.80
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% as both sides combine for 2.80 xG, with Martínez's 24% of City's attack meeting Mukhtar's creative 26% of Nashville's threat in a fixture the model rates nearly even."