FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Columbus Crew 0–1 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Columbus Crew at 56%, draw at 22%, Red Bull New York at 22%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Columbus Crew to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Crew win
56%
Draw
22%
York win
22%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.07 – 1.25
Total 3.32
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 84%, built on Columbus Crew's 0.84 xG advantage and Diego Rossi's creative influence on a team generating 2.08 expected goals at home."