FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Chicago Fire FC 2–1 New York City FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Chicago Fire FC or draw at 75%. Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 51%, the draw at 24% and New York City FC at 25%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chicago Fire FC win
51%
Result
Draw
24%
New York City FC win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Chicago Fire FC to win
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.