FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 15 October 2026

D.C. United 2–1 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026

D.C. United
2–1
D.C. United win
Red Bull New York

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was D.C. United or draw at 69%. Bawler had D.C. United at 45%, the draw at 24% and Red Bull New York at 31%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

D.C. United win
45%
Result
Draw
24%
Red Bull New York win
31%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 2.8
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
D.C. United or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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