FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Real Salt Lake 0–2 New York City FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Real Salt Lake at 42%, draw at 26%, New York City FC at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Real Salt Lake to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lake win
42%
Draw
26%
FC win
32%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.38
Total 3.00
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's call at 80% confidence, driven by Real Salt Lake's 1.60 xG at home against a visiting side generating just 1.39—enough combined volume to breach the line despite their narrow 0.21 xG gap."