FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 19 September 2026
New York City FC 0–1 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had New York City FC at 52%, draw at 24%, Red Bull New York at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was New York City FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
52%
Draw
24%
York win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.91 – 1.27
Total 3.18
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 39%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts as the model's safest call at 84% confidence, built on New York City FC's 0.74 xG advantage and Martínez's prolific 24% of team shot quality."