FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
New York City FC 1–2 New England RevolutionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had New York City FC at 48%, draw at 26%, New England Revolution at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was New York City FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
48%
Draw
26%
Revolution win
26%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.68 – 1.20
Total 2.88
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"New York City FC's 0.49 expected-goal advantage and Alonso Martínez commanding 24% of the team's attacking threat make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 78% forecast."