FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 0–0 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 57%, draw at 21%, Red Bull New York at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Seattle Sounders FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
57%
Draw
21%
Actual ✓
York win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.17 – 1.26
Total 3.44
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 86%, backed by Seattle's 0.91 xG advantage and Jordan Morris's wing threat in a fixture where the hosts project 2.17 expected goals."