FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
LAFC 2–0 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had LAFC at 65%, draw at 20%, Red Bull New York at 16%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward LAFC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
LAFC win
65%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
York win
16%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.32 – 1.08
Total 3.39
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 65%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"LAFC's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.24 expected-goals advantage, with the model projecting 2.31 xG compared to Red Bull New York's 1.07."