FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 38%, draw at 27%, New York City FC at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Atlanta United FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
38%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
FC win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.41
Total 2.85
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% because both teams generate nearly identical attacking threat—Atlanta's Thiago Almada and New York's Alonso Martínez each drive 24% of their side's xG in a fixture where combined expected goals reach 2.85."