Match prediction·USA: MLS·Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

D.C. United vs New England Revolution

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
45.6% home27.2% draw27.2% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
D.C. UnitedstepNew England Revolution
1.58Base xG · rolling 26-match1.17
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.58Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.17

D.C. United average 4.9 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). New England Revolution average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (20 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
10
12
7
3
1
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8
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5
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5
3
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2
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1
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6
home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Harry Kane
New England Revolution · Bayern Munich
60%
To score
Bukayo Saka
New England Revolution · Arsenal
42%
To score
Jude Bellingham
New England Revolution · Real Madrid
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

D.C. United vs New England Revolution — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between D.C. United and New England Revolution — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: D.C. United 46% · draw 27% · New England Revolution 27%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.