What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win FC Cincinnati vs D.C. United?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Cincinnati are favoured (52% win probability vs 24% for D.C. United, 23% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for FC Cincinnati vs D.C. United?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is FC Cincinnati 1-1 D.C. United (10.5% probability). Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict FC Cincinnati vs D.C. United?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives FC Cincinnati 52%, the draw 23% and D.C. United 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs D.C. United?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 62% chance. That is based on FC Cincinnati expecting 1.94 goals and D.C. United 1.28.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Cincinnati vs D.C. United?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.