Bawler / USA: MLS / D.C. United
Team profile · USA: MLS

D.C. United Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
11
10 settled
Goals for
1.21
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.22
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
70%
7/10 calls

D.C. United prediction: for D.C. United's next match — CF Montréal vs D.C. United on Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it CF Montréal are favoured (39%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

D.C. United sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.21 expected goals a game and conceding 1.22. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to CF Montréal, where the model has them as underdogs at 30%.

Next match

Away vs CF Montréal · Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
30%
D.C. United
Draw
31%
Loss
39%
CF Montréal
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 84%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
2W 6D 2L
Real goals
1.5 – 1.8
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How D.C. United compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.21
Below average
Goals against
1.22
Tighter than most
Scored1.21
Conceded1.22

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.21 xG per match · -0.27 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Solid defensively
Conceding 1.22 xG per match · -0.23 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on D.C. United fixtures (4/4).

📊 D.C. United in numbers

44 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.0
Goals · per game
let in 1.9
🏠 1.0✈️ 1.1
4.5
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
🏠 4.9✈️ 4.1
11.5
Shots · per game
faced 13.5
🏠 12.0✈️ 10.9
4.0
On target · per game
faced 5.3
🏠 4.1✈️ 3.8
🗓️ Last 6 games
01 Aug
2-2
vs Nashville
🚩 8-3
25 Jul
2-1
vs Toronto
🚩 8-5
23 Jul
1-1
@ Houston Dynamo
🚩 3-3
23 May
4-4
vs CF Montréal
🚩 6-4
16 May
1-1
vs St. Louis CITY
🚩 5-8
13 May
1-3
vs Chicago Fire
🚩 7-8

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on D.C. United matches
70%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 10

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a D.C. United fixture, it is right 7 out of 10 (70%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on D.C. United by market
Result60%3/5
Goals (Over/Under)100%4/4

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on D.C. United fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for D.C. United matches.

Recent matches (last 10)

D.C. United prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly