FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
D.C. United 0–0 LAFCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had D.C. United at 27%, draw at 26%, LAFC at 46%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was LAFC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
27%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
LAFC win
46%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.16 – 1.58
Total 2.74
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 76%, backed by LAFC's 0.43 xG advantage and a combined expected-goals total of 2.74 that points to an open, attacking contest."