FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Columbus Crew 1–3 New England RevolutionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Columbus Crew at 50%, draw at 25%, New England Revolution at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Columbus Crew to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Crew win
50%
Draw
25%
Revolution win
25%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.72 – 1.16
Total 2.87
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 78%, driven by Columbus Crew's 0.56 xG advantage and Diego Rossi generating nearly a quarter of his team's attacking threat at home."