FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
New England Revolution 1–1 New York City FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had New England Revolution at 41%, draw at 26%, New York City FC at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was New England Revolution to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Revolution win
41%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
FC win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.34
Total 2.85
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won