FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
CF Montréal 2–2 New England RevolutionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had CF Montréal at 45%, draw at 30%, New England Revolution at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was CF Montréal to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Montréal win
45%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
Revolution win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.66 – 1.20
Total 2.85
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 75% because Montréal's 1.66 xG dominates New England's 1.20, creating a 0.46 gap that suggests enough attacking volume for multiple goals."