FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
D.C. United 0–3 New England RevolutionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had D.C. United at 40%, draw at 27%, New England Revolution at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-3. The model's headline call was D.C. United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
40%
Draw
27%
Revolution win
33%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.26
Total 2.68
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost