FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
D.C. United 0–3 New England RevolutionMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was D.C. United or draw at 67%. Bawler had D.C. United at 40%, the draw at 27% and New England Revolution at 33%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
D.C. United win
40%
Draw
27%
New England Revolution win
33%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.