FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
D.C. United 2–2 Nashville SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had D.C. United at 39%, draw at 33%, Nashville SC at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was D.C. United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
39%
Draw
33%
Actual ✓
SC win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 1.16
Total 2.55
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 68%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 20%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 68% because D.C. United's 1.40 xG at home edges Nashville's 1.16 enough to sustain goal-heavy projection in a narrow xG gap."