FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
LA Galaxy 2–1 New England RevolutionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had LA Galaxy at 42%, draw at 26%, New England Revolution at 32%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward LA Galaxy.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Galaxy win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Revolution win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.40
Total 3.02
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% as Galaxy's creator Puig and Revolution scorers Kane and Saka combine for 3.02 total xG in a fixture separated by just 0.22 xG."