FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Charlotte FC 3–1 D.C. UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Charlotte FC at 51%, draw at 25%, D.C. United at 23%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Charlotte FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
United win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.71 – 1.09
Total 2.80
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost