FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Charlotte FC 3–1 D.C. UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Charlotte FC or draw at 77%. Bawler had Charlotte FC at 51%, the draw at 25% and D.C. United at 23%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Charlotte FC win
51%
Result
Draw
25%
D.C. United win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.