Bawler's model rates this match: Chicago Fire FC are favoured (44% win probability vs 34% for Inter Miami CF, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Chicago Fire FC 1-1 Inter Miami CF (8.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.84.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Chicago Fire FC 44%, the draw 22% and Inter Miami CF 34%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (73% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.05 and away expected goals 1.79.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.84. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).