FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Nashville SC 3–0 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Nashville SC at 45%, draw at 25%, Chicago Fire FC at 30%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Nashville SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
FC win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.69 – 1.34
Total 3.03
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, underpinned by Nashville's 0.39 xG advantage and Hany Mukhtar's creative force driving 26% of the team's shot quality."