FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Red Bull New York 1–1 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Chicago Fire FC or draw at 66%. Bawler had Red Bull New York at 34%, the draw at 24% and Chicago Fire FC at 42%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Red Bull New York win
34%
Draw
24%
Result
Chicago Fire FC win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.8
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.