FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Red Bull New York 1–1 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Red Bull New York at 34%, draw at 24%, Chicago Fire FC at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Chicago Fire FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
York win
34%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
FC win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.80
Total 3.42
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won