FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Inter Miami CF 2–2 Nashville SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 51%, draw at 23%, Nashville SC at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Inter Miami CF to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CF win
51%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
SC win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.04 – 1.46
Total 3.50
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 86% call, built on Inter Miami's 2.04 xG advantage and Messi's role orchestrating 35% of their shot quality against Nashville's 1.46 xG output."