FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Inter Miami CF 2–2 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 66%, draw at 18%, Atlanta United FC at 16%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Inter Miami CF to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CF win
66%
Draw
18%
Actual ✓
FC win
16%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.58 – 1.22
Total 3.80
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 66%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Inter Miami's 1.37 expected-goals advantage and Messi's creative dominance (35% of team xG) drive a convincing Home Win forecast at 66%, with Atlanta's creator Almada unable to close a 2.58–1.22 xG gap."