FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 28 September 2026
Columbus Crew 2–1 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 28 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Columbus Crew at 39%, draw at 24%, Inter Miami CF at 38%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Columbus Crew.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Crew win
39%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
CF win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.76 – 1.73
Total 3.49
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 86% as Columbus (1.76 xG) and Miami (1.74 xG) arrive nearly level, with Messi's creative pull and Rossi's wing threat combining for a goal-heavy fixture."