FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Inter Miami CF 7–1 CF MontréalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 64%, draw at 19%, CF Montréal at 17%. The match ended 7-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Inter Miami CF.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CF win
64%
Actual ✓
Draw
19%
Montréal win
17%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.50 – 1.24
Total 3.73
Actual
7 – 1
Total 8 (+4.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 4.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 64%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Inter Miami's Home Win forecast sits at 64% on the back of a 1.26 expected-goals advantage, with Messi's creative output fueling a dominant 2.50 xG tally against Montréal's 1.24."