FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Charlotte FC 0–1 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 27 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Charlotte FC at 40%, draw at 25%, Chicago Fire FC at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Charlotte FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
40%
Draw
25%
FC win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.69 – 1.56
Total 3.25
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% confidence as Charlotte's 1.69 xG and Chicago's 1.56 xG combine for a 3.25 total that tilts decisively toward a multi-goal contest."