FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Chicago Fire FC 1–1 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 44%, draw at 22%, Inter Miami CF at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Chicago Fire FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
44%
Draw
22%
Actual ✓
CF win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.05 – 1.79
Total 3.84
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 90%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 90% confidence as both sides combine for 3.84 xG, with Chicago's 2.05 home advantage and Messi's creative pull for Miami (35% of their xG) driving a narrow gap that favors attacking intent."