FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 2–2 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Seattle Sounders FC or draw at 69%. Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 44%, the draw at 25% and Chicago Fire FC at 31%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Seattle Sounders FC win
44%
Draw
25%
Result
Chicago Fire FC win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 83% confidence, driven by Seattle's 1.74 xG advantage and a combined expected-goal total of 3.17 that heavily favors an open, attacking contest."