FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Inter Miami CF 1–2 Toronto FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 66%, draw at 20%, Toronto FC at 15%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Inter Miami CF to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CF win
66%
Draw
20%
FC win
15%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.27 – 0.99
Total 3.26
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 66%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost