FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Inter Miami CF 1–2 Toronto FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Inter Miami CF to win at 66%. Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 66%, the draw at 20% and Toronto FC at 15%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Inter Miami CF win
66%
Draw
20%
Toronto FC win
15%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.0
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Inter Miami CF to win
Pre-match: 66%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.