FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Chicago Fire FC 1–2 New England RevolutionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 54%, draw at 23%, New England Revolution at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Chicago Fire FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
54%
Draw
23%
Revolution win
23%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.95 – 1.23
Total 3.18
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 39%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call, with Chicago generating a 0.73 expected-goals advantage and the combined xG total reaching 3.18."