Braga vs Vitória de Guimaraes prediction — Liga Portugal · Mon 31 Aug · 20:15 UK

Liga Portugal · Mon 31 Aug · 20:15 UK
Braga 59Draw 23Vitória de Guimaraes 18
The call
82%
Braga or draw
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–0

How it finished

Braga beat Vitória de Guimaraes 1–0. Bawler's model had Braga in front at 59% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 1 was scored. Braga had 9 shots (4 on target) to Vitória de Guimaraes' 8 (2), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 0.2.

BragaFull-time statsVitória de…
54%Possession46%
0.8Expected goals (xG)0.2
9Shots8
4Shots on target2
6Shots inside box2
2Big chances1
2Corners2
2Saves3
11Fouls18
5Offsides1
2Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultBraga 59%Braga (59% called)
Total goals2.91
Both teams to score52%No
Model call1X 82%Landed
Second callOver 2.5 Goals 54%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Braga to score85%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Under 3.5 goals68%
Vitória de Guimaraes to score62%

First half — what we expected

BragaBefore half-timeVitória de Guimaraes
66%Chance to score35%
2.5Expected shots4.9
1.1Expected shots on target1.2
1.1Expected corners1.4
24%Chance of 4+ shots69%
5%Chance of 6+ shots36%
30%Chance of 2+ shots on target36%
31%Chance of 2+ corners39%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 77%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.9 / match
Head-to-head, last 5BRA 2 · D 2 · VIT 1
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Feb 2026Braga 3–2 Vitória de Guimarães
Jan 2026Vitória de Guimarães 2–1 Braga
Sept 2025Vitória de Guimarães 1–1 Braga
Feb 2025Vitória de Guimarães 0–0 Braga
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Braga vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Braga beat Vitória de Guimaraes 1–0. Bawler's model had Braga in front at 59% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 1 was scored. Braga had 9 shots (4 on target) to Vitória de Guimaraes' 8 (2), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 0.2.

What was the final score in Braga vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Braga 1–0 Vitória de Guimaraes, played on 31 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with Braga 59%, the draw 23% and Vitória de Guimaraes 18%.

What were the stats in Braga vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–0.2, Shots 9–8, Shots on target 4–2, Shots inside box 6–2, Big chances 2–1, Corners 2–2, Saves 2–3, Fouls 11–18, Offsides 5–1, Yellow cards 2–3.

Did both teams score in Braga vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

No. It finished 1–0, so Vitória de Guimaraes failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Braga vs Vitória de Guimaraes right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Braga 59%, it finished Braga (59% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished No; Model call — we said 1X 82%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said Over 2.5 Goals 54%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →Braga form →Vitória de Guimaraes form →