FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Académico de Viseu 2–1 Vitória de GuimaraesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Académico de Viseu at 43%, draw at 27%, Vitória de Guimaraes at 30%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Académico de Viseu.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Viseu win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Guimaraes win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.22
Total 2.72
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Académico de Viseu's 1.50 expected goals edge over Vitória de Guimaraes' 1.22 supports the high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 76%, as both sides project sufficient attacking threat despite their narrow xG gap."