FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Vitória de Guimaraes 1–0 C.D. NacionalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Vitória de Guimaraes at 46%, draw at 26%, C.D. Nacional at 27%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Vitória de Guimaraes.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Guimaraes win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Nacional win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.18
Total 2.78
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost