FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Monday, 31 August 2026
Braga 1–0 Vitória de GuimaraesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 31 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Braga at 59%, draw at 23%, Vitória de Guimaraes at 18%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Braga.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Braga win
59%
Actual ✓
Draw
23%
Guimaraes win
18%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.90 – 0.96
Total 2.85
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 32%
✗ Lost