FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Saturday, 08 August 2026
Vitória de Guimaraes 0–1 AroucaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 08 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Vitória de Guimaraes at 49%, draw at 31%, Arouca at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Vitória de Guimaraes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Guimaraes win
49%
Draw
31%
Arouca win
20%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won