FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Vitória de Guimaraes 1–1 MoreirenseMatch recap · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Vitória de Guimaraes win
54%
Draw
25%
Result
Moreirense win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.