FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Vitória de Guimaraes 1–1 MoreirenseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Vitória de Guimaraes at 54%, draw at 25%, Moreirense at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Vitória de Guimaraes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Guimaraes win
54%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Moreirense win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.74 – 1.01
Total 2.75
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Vitória de Guimaraes' 1X forecast sits at 79% confidence, anchored by a dominant 0.72 expected-goals edge that suggests the hosts will either win or hold serve against a Moreirense side generating just 0.98 xG."