FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Vitória de Guimaraes 0–0 Casa PiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Vitória de Guimaraes at 56%, draw at 25%, Casa Pia at 19%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Vitória de Guimaraes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Guimaraes win
56%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Pia win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.78 – 0.95
Total 2.73
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Vitória de Guimaraes' 0.82 expected-goals advantage underpins the 1X forecast at 81%, signalling the hosts should avoid defeat despite Casa Pia's threat on the road."