FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Austria Vienna 0–0 BragaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Braga or draw at 80%. Bawler had Austria Vienna at 20%, the draw at 24% and Braga at 56%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Austria Vienna win
20%
Draw
24%
Result
Braga win
56%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.9
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Braga or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Braga's 0.83 xG advantage and 56% win probability make Braga or draw the model's high-confidence call, with Roger Fernandes's wing creation (22% of team xG) the key attacking outlet against a Vienna side generating just 1.02 expected goals."