FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Alverca 1–2 BragaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Alverca at 25%, draw at 26%, Braga at 49%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Braga.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alverca win
25%
Draw
26%
Braga win
49%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.09 – 1.60
Total 2.69
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 75%, with Braga's 0.52 xG edge and Roger Fernandes's wing creation (22% of team xG) positioning the visitors to generate enough attacking pressure for a multi-goal outcome."