FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Braga 2–0 Austria ViennaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Braga at 65%, draw at 21%, Austria Vienna at 14%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Braga.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Braga win
65%
Actual ✓
Draw
21%
Vienna win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.08 – 0.85
Total 2.93
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost