FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 14 September 2026
Braga 1–0 EstorilMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 14 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Braga at 65%, draw at 21%, Estoril at 15%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Braga.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Braga win
65%
Actual ✓
Draw
21%
Estoril win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.16 – 0.94
Total 3.09
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 65%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Braga's home win prediction sits at 65% on a 1.22 expected-goals advantage, with Roger Fernandes's wing play driving 22% of their attacking output against a Estoril side managing just 0.94 xG."