Benfica vs Estoril prediction — Liga Portugal · Mon 31 Aug · 20:15 UK

Liga Portugal · Mon 31 Aug · 20:15 UK
Benfica 76Draw 16Estoril 9
The call
76%
Benfica to win
3.4
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–1

How it finished

Benfica beat Estoril 2–1. Bawler's model had Benfica in front at 76% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 3. Benfica had 25 shots (8 on target) to Estoril's 4 (2), with 66% of the ball against 34%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 0.4.

BenficaFull-time statsEstoril
66%Possession34%
2.0Expected goals (xG)0.4
25Shots4
8Shots on target2
15Shots inside box3
2Big chances0
9Corners0
1Saves6
14Fouls12
2Offsides0
0Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultBenfica 76%Benfica (76% called)
Total goals3.43
Both teams to score51%Yes
Model callHome Win 76%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Benfica to score93%
Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals67%

First half — what we expected

BenficaBefore half-timeEstoril
76%Chance to score32%
9.3Expected shots4.0
3.4Expected shots on target1.6
3.2Expected corners1.5
69%Chance of 8+ shots7%
45%Chance of 10+ shots2%
65%Chance of 2+ shots on target48%
45%Chance of 4+ shots on target8%
81%Chance of 2+ corners41%
40%Chance of 4+ corners8%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 84%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+1.8 / match
Head-to-head, last 5BEN 5 · D 0 · EST 0
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

May 2026Estoril 1–3 Benfica
Jan 2026Benfica 3–1 Estoril
May 2025Estoril 1–2 Benfica
Dec 2024Benfica 3–0 Estoril
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Benfica vs Estoril?

Benfica beat Estoril 2–1. Bawler's model had Benfica in front at 76% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.4 goals and the match produced 3. Benfica had 25 shots (8 on target) to Estoril's 4 (2), with 66% of the ball against 34%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 0.4.

What was the final score in Benfica vs Estoril?

Benfica 2–1 Estoril, played on 31 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with Benfica 76%, the draw 16% and Estoril 9%.

What were the stats in Benfica vs Estoril?

Full-time: Possession 66%–34%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–0.4, Shots 25–4, Shots on target 8–2, Shots inside box 15–3, Big chances 2–0, Corners 9–0, Saves 1–6, Fouls 14–12, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Benfica vs Estoril?

Yes — both Benfica and Estoril scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Benfica vs Estoril right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Benfica 76%, it finished Benfica (76% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Home Win 76%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →Benfica form →Estoril form →