FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Benfica 3–1 AGFMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica to win at 68%. Bawler had Benfica at 68%, the draw at 20% and AGF at 12%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Benfica win
68%
Result
Draw
20%
AGF win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.8
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Benfica or draw
Pre-match: 88%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 20%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.